"I'm expecting prices to come down by 20 to 25 percent," says Fabrice Bernard, CEO of Bordeaux merchant Millésima. In your dreams, Fabrice, I say. He shrugs. "I like to have dreams."
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But this year, he's not dreaming alone. The general view in Bordeaux is that en primeur prices for the 2017s cannot go up. That of course is not the same as a reduction, but much depends on the strength of each individual brand. The likes of Léoville-Lascases are unlikely to need to come down in the way that others will. But, says Fabrice, "the First Growths need to be under €300 [$370] a bottle. They could be €250, or €260, or €270 or €280, but they must be under."
The reason he believes that price reductions are needed is not because the 2017 vintage is not good. The first signs are that the wines are good – quality is likely to be mixed, but will probably be around the level of 2014. Yes, there was frost, but that didn't affect the quality of what was left, only the quantity. Some châteaux had their crop frosted out of existence, but others weren't affected at all, and picked a normal crop.
It's also not because the market is weak at the moment: on the contrary, people are buying, and wines are moving. The Chinese, for example, seem to have bought up the 2013s in their search for good brand names at low prices, which has saved those wines from the fate of most weak Bordeaux vintages – being sold off at a discount in supermarket Foires aux Vins. The 2014s are proving popular, too. "Since November, the 2014s have been increasing in price every week," says Fabrice. "Lafite goes up about €5 every couple of weeks." That's on the Bordeaux Place, the internal marketplace comprised of merchants who trade with each other as well as with you and me.
These merchants – the négociants of Bordeaux – are not carrying much stock at the moment. Says Jean-Christophe Mau of négociant Yvon Mau, "The 2014s are selling, and the 2015s too." If the négociants are holding on to stocks, notably of 2015s, it's because they expect them to rise in price, and they want to have some to sell in the future. And at the châteaux, says Jean-Christophe, the only stocks are of 2013s – those the Chinese haven't bought yet – and 2016, which is still in barrel.
You might infer that the world is thirsty again. But nobody believes it's so parched that it will pay high prices en primeur for the 2017s. The Chinese aren't buying en primeur and haven't done so since the 2010 vintage, when they paid high prices and reckon they got their fingers burnt. What they like doing now is buying once the wines are in bottle. US buyers, Fabrice says, still want only the best wines in top vintages, which rules out 2017, because nobody is saying it's a great year. "It's European markets that will buy 2017," he says.
That already controls the level of demand. In addition, 2017 comes after the excellent 2015 and 2016, and the very good 2014. But Fabrice points to 2009, 2010 and 2011 as the reasons why 2017 must come down in price. It's the same pattern: two great years, then a decent one. "It took six to seven years before the 2011s began to rise in price on the Place. During that time, the négociants had to hold the stock. It's not easy. So 2017 must decrease [in price] more than 2011 did." The 2011s came down a bit on 2009 and 2010, but not enough, and the campaign proved a damp squib as a result, with the wines stuck with the négociants for much longer than the négociants wanted. Hence Fabrice's insistence that the châteaux must do better this time round.
Will Hargrove of UK merchant Corney & Barrow agrees. "Prices should ideally come visibly down. Whatever happens, there's a perception of frost damage and mixed quality." The traditional kind of en primeur customer, he says, the kind that bought every year, has disappeared since the "game-changing" vintages of 2009 and 2010. C&B sold plenty of 2016s – "it was a better campaign for us than 2015, which was saying something" – but that excitement is unlikely to be there for the 2017s.
Toby Herbertson of Goedhuis points out that in the last few vintages "the First Growths have tended to come out at a more workable level than some, given their place in the hierarchy. It'll be a powerful marker if they do that again."
For once, the châteaux seem to be singing from more or less the same hymn-sheet – so far. "Prices will decrease for 2017," says Véronique Sanders of Haut-Bailly. "It's not a vintage with the potential of 2015 or 2016." Sylvie Cazes of Chauvin in Saint-Émilion points out, however, that Vinexpo Asia takes place this summer, which might strengthen those markets. "It should be a good campaign. I can't see any points that would be bad."
Hélène Garcin of Clos l'Église feels that "people don't know how to behave with this vintage. After two very big campaigns, I hope people will come and taste; the good wines will be very good." And Emmeline Borie of Haut-Batailley and Grand-Puy-Lacoste questions whether consumers know how to handle en primeur now. "Should they buy? Should they wait until the wines are in bottle? Some châteaux are still playing the game – we sell 100 percent en primeur. We don't want to be négociants; we don't want to destabilize the market. For our wines, you must buy en primeur. For other wines, the consumer knows they can find them again, because the châteaux put only 70 percent on the market en primeur. But with 2017 we have a more consumer year, compared to 2015 and 2016, which were more speculative."
But as always with Bordeaux en primeur, half an eye, or maybe a quarter, is fixed on the next vintage. As Fabrice says, "If 2018 is great, the price of 2017 won't matter. Nobody will care."
