Bourbon might still be riding a long, rolling wave of popularity, but there is one metric where the wave is receding: price.
A look at the list of most expensive Bourbons across the past five years suggests that the peak for Bourbon prices has been and gone; but like all statistics, there's a level of nuance that needs to be explored before making any bold claims.
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First, let's look at how Bourbon prices have changed in the past decade. Overall, prices for all Bourbons made in Kentucky have risen by an average of around 50 percent, from $32 in 2015 to a shade under $49 today. But that includes all Bourbons, even the jug whiskeys on sale for less than the price of a packet of cigarettes at the local liquor store.
At different price levels, things are, naturally, more nuanced. At the level of, say, Jim Beam's white label bottling, the price is virtually static: it had a global average price (GARP) per bottle of $18 back in 2015, while it sits at $20 today. Bulleit's basic bottling is similarly unmoved, ranging between $30 and $32 across the decade.
Move up a level and things start to stretch out a ways, however. Blanton's had a GARP of $55. It broke the $100 mark in April 2020 and currently sits at $142, down quite a way from its 2022 peak of $166. Eagle Rare had a GARP of $38.50 10 years ago, but that stands at $69 today, a rise of 79 percent.
So mid-range Bourbon is still going up in price, while the next tier up is doing better. Four Roses Small Batch has shifted its GARP from $145 in 2015 to $586 today, quadrupling its price tag. Elijah Craig 18 Year Old isn't as spectacular but still rose from $140 to $250 over the same period.
But what about the very top tier? Well, let's take a look at them.
It might seem strange to look at a list that amounts to $247,924 and say it's getting cheaper, but it actually is; last year, the top 10 would have cost $248,252, while the year before it would have been $284,941. The years 2022 and 2023 were a high-water mark for top-end Bourbon and the prices have been slipping steadily ever since.
For example, the Old Rip Van Winkle 25 has been the most expensive Bourbon for the past five years and its GARP has shifted from less than $15,000 in 2018 to a peak of $57,077 in 2022. It has slipped down by $7881 or around 14 percent since that peak. The other whiskeys on the list have been rising more slowly, too, or even dropping in price.
That's not to say that the bottles you have under the stairs to support your through retirement are devalued, of course. It just means that, as times get tight, fewer people are prepared to pay such inflated prices for their whiskey. That may well change as the global economic conditions improve, but what it shows is that, unlike some wines – Burgundy, for example – even the top end of Bourbon is not immune to the vagaries of international economics.
Of the eight whiskeys still in the top 10 since last year, all bar one have come down in price. Only the Pappy Van Winkle 23 has managed to keep its nose above the waterline – spectacularly so, adding almost $7000, or 20 percent, to its GARP in the past 12 months.
Of the two new entries, Eagle Rare has tumbled dramatically since it hit the market last year at an average of $43,103; it currently sits at $28,196. The AH Hirsch, meanwhile has dropped less precipitously, shedding less than $2000, although its decrease has been more noticeable since it arrived on the market in February 2022 with a GARP of $32,000.
Again, it's no cause to panic, but it is worth noting the fact that someone has pulled the plug out of the vertiginous price increases that Bourbon has enjoyed in the past five years or so. I'd argue that it's a good thing; Bourbon lovers have enough choice in the market to not need to bankrupt themselves by trying to corral the big beasts.
It's been a while since we could say this, but Bourbon might just be returning to its roots as an affordable luxury – and we can all drink to that.
