As Year of the Horse gallops toward us, China's wine trade is hoping for a smoother ride than the decade past, marked by the pandemic, anti-corruption campaigns, overcapacity and cautious consumer spending. Here are some trends to watch as the trade aims to prove you can both lead a Year of the Horse to wine and make it drink.
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White is the new black
White wine will continue to shine as consumers increasingly drink for pleasure, embracing the refreshment and versatility of New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc and German Riesling as well as local offerings. Domestic Chardonnay is especially showing well, led by wineries like Xiaoling, Mingyi and Zaxee from Yunnan province. Another sign of the times: Grace Vineyard in Shanxi province will release its first "Symphony" Muscat since 2012.
One emerging niche is still Blanc de Noirs, which provides producers committed to red grapes a solution for their surplus fruit while leveraging the white wine boom. With fewer tannins than reds and more roundness than most whites, these are a fun option for bars and restaurants.
A few producers, like Longyu Estate, Changyu Moser XV (Cabernet Sauvignon) and Lige Yuanshan (Marselan), have made Blanc de Noirs for several years, and have now been joined by labels fronting a range of grapes, including Mystic Island (Cabernet Franc), Nine Peaks (Petit Verdot), Shepherd (Malbec) and Xiban (Marselan).
Everything everywhere all at once
Beyond white wine, domestic producers continue to diversify past the once-hoped-for safety net of Bordeaux-style reds. This approach feels half scattershot and half strategic, driven by a need for revenue.
It's no longer a shock when a Cabernet producer releases a late-harvest, skin-contact, tea-infused, low-alcohol, no-alcohol or sparkling – traditional method or pet-nat – wine. Not to mention wineries introducing grape spirits.
This explosion of creativity will be a boon for more adventurous consumers.
Value for money
Two decades ago, China's wine market was seen as an hourglass, wide at the top (premium) and bottom (cheap). The middle slowly grew as disposable income – and wine sales – rose, but the past dozen years have proven difficult.
The key in 2026 will be value across all price points. We will see more worthy local wines below the RMB100 or $14 threshold, where consumers can already find quality imports, including those German Rieslings and ample offerings from Spain. Online retailers are also creating low-priced labels: Jingdong has Ningxia wine for $7 per bottle.
On the flip side, low-volume high-scoring wines from Yunnan, Huailai County and elsewhere will command lofty prices from consumers with money to spare and/or clients to impress. Is $100 too much for a 97-point red? One could easily argue it is good value. Such wines are proliferating in finer restaurants.
This doesn't mean the middle has disappeared. There is a growing wave of curious consumers buying in the $14 to $40 range, but this is a longer-term play, one that will reward producers who invested in quality and who can endure.
The regional squeeze
Look for Ningxia to feel more pressure from other regions, particularly if the market struggles. High-altitude wines from Yunnan, and soon Sichuan and Tibet, will squeeze the quality side, while regions with low production costs and worthy wines, such as Yili in Xinjiang, will compete on quantity.
Ningxia has over 100 commercial producers, and while some like Helan Qingxue, Kanaan and Legacy Peak have carved niches, mostly with Bordeaux varieties, others need better value and stronger stories. This is no shocker: a decade ago, the regional authorities encouraged wineries to diversify their vineyards, giving $15,000 to those planting 13 hectares of a lesser-planted variety and making a marketable wine, on top of $50,000 for winning gold in a major global contest.
Some wineries clearly got the message. Mountain Wave planted Malbec, Marselan and Pinot Noir – and skillfully blends them – to stand out. It has also added several pet-nats and this year will launch two Blanc de Noirs – Malbec and Pinot Noir – to maintain its momentum.
The vintelligentsia squeeze
Expect the "vintelligentsia" – the educators, critics and consultants between the producers and consumers – to also feel pressure. The number of master classes, wine contests, score-filled guides and MW / WSET diploma holders in China has grown at odds with the decline of wine imports and production.
Regional associations will struggle to justify heavy fees for MW- or MS-led master classes aimed at the trade. More brands will look to promotions targeting consumers at large, including teaming up with wine personalities from platforms like Douyin (TikTok) and Little Red Book that can provide measurable results.
Wine expertise isn't irrelevant but tactics are changing. One example was Wines of Germany pairing the online and offline worlds last year by featuring eight top wine KOLs from Little Red Book at its three-day Summer of Riesling festival. Another was Bettane et Desseauve upping the fun ante by holding a "grand tasting" on a cruise ship.
Trade fairs are also appealing to consumers. Wine to Asia in Shenzhen pairs its three-day fair with the Greater Bay Area Wine Week, which expanded to nearly 100 bars and restaurants last year, alongside a slate of after-show dinners and parties.
Finally, more wineries will directly connect to consumers, whether through wine tourism – places like Qiushan Valley and Ningxia are increasingly convenient – or personalized experiences like The Cellar Project's adopt-a-vine project, which gives updates to the "parents" of those plants and thus teaches them about grape growing.
National pride and global reach
Finally, rising pride in national brands is offering hope for Chinese wine, which are increasingly positioned as expressing regional terroir rather than as knockoffs of global styles.
More restaurants will amplify this cultural connection by bridging Chinese and fusion cuisine with imported and local wine. In Beijing, restaurants like The Merchants (fusion), Under Clouds (Yunnan) and newcomer Somm Table (Northeast) are among those doing so. This includes wines celebrating Chinese tastes, such as the seven-bottle series of sparkling tea-infused Chardonnays by Lingering Clouds.
The national pride extends overseas, with wine part of a broader push to promote Chinese brands globally. In a relatively short time, Chinese wine has gone from punchline – leaded or unleaded? – to attracting curious consumers, from Australia to Mexico to Italy. Southeast Asia is shaping up as a particularly fertile export market.
Perhaps most symbolic of this shift is China Wine Club, which brought boutique Chinese brands to New York last spring.
Despite relatively high prices – made higher by US tariffs – both the trade and consumers were pleasantly surprised at the wine quality and diversity. A second shipment has already arrived, showing these wines were more than a novelty. As the song goes, if you can make it there, you can make it anywhere. Expect more brands to make it.
These are just a few trends ahead as Year of the Horse arrives on the hooves of a decade that saw China's wine trade repeatedly forced to climb back into the saddle. With bright spots such as the white wine boom, the shift toward drinking for pleasure and growing pride in local producers, perhaps we will enjoy a steadier ride.
